Una strategia bellica di lunga durata e logoramento?
di Roberto Buffagni - 22/05/2022
Fonte: Roberto Buffagni
Sui problematici futuri sviluppi delle ostilità in Ucraina, l'opinione del col. in congedo Mikhail Khodarenok (General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces). Sintesi: le ostilità nel Donbass sono soltanto il primo atto di questa tragedia.
K. avverte che l'Ucraina sta addestrando un numeroso esercito di coscritti e che con il finanziamento e l'addestramento occidentali, esso sarà in grado di prolungare e intensificare le ostilità.
A mio avviso la previsione di K. è sostanzialmente corretta. Gli USA e i loro alleati occidentali, in particolare Polonia e paesi baltici, stanno raccogliendo, addestrando e armando su territorio europeo (Polonia e Germania anzitutto) circa un milione di coscritti ucraini, allo scopo di prolungare il più possibile le ostilità, in vista dell'obiettivo strategico di indebolire la Russia e frammentarla politicamente.
Le operazioni militari nel Sudest dell'Ucraina probabilmente avranno termine con la vittoria delle forze russe e l'occupazione di quei territori.
Non avranno però termine le ostilità in Ucraina, perché il governo ucraino non formalizzerà il risultato sul campo con un trattato. Le ostilità dunque proseguiranno, con l'intervento di nuovi contingenti ucraini, eventualmente infoltiti da truppe polacche o baltiche e mercenari.
Anche dopo la perdita del Sudest, l'Ucraina conserva la profondità strategica sufficiente per combattere; per di più, i santuari logistici del nuovo contingente ucraino si troveranno su territorio NATO, che la Russia non può colpire senza provocare una grave escalation del conflitto.
L'enorme quantità di armamenti forniti dagli USA con la votazione del programma Lend-Lease raggiungerà, in parte (non si sa quanto grande) le unità ucraine sul campo; risulta infatti dai più recenti sviluppi delle ostilità che una parte, benché piccola, dell'artiglieria pesante occidentale è giunta sul campo di battaglia del Donbass. Evidentemente, i russi non sono in grado di individuare e colpire tutti i convogli di armi inviati dagli occidentali in Ucraina, probabilmente grazie alla superiorità dei sistemi di sorveglianza e contro-sorveglianza elettronica NATO.
Di conseguenza, la Russia, che a quanto risulta sta già mobilitando i riservisti da un paio di mesi, dovrà affrontare un conflitto più lungo, più intenso, e con maggiori costi umani ed economici.
Copio e incollo l'articolo che informa sulle posizioni di K. perché FB non mi lascia riportare il link. Il sito che lo pubblica è oneworld punto press.
Why Have Retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok’s Comments Caused Such A Stir?
18 MAY 2022
Acknowledging what might be “politically incorrect” realities that one could have hitherto been blinded by “information tranquilizers” from realizing until now is the only way to get closer to analyzing anything as accurately as can possibly be done. This goes for both the Mainstream Media and the Alt-Media Community alike.
Mikhail Khodarenok, whose bio at RT describes him as having served at the main operational directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (RAF), has caused quite a stir in the US-led Western Mainstream Media (MSM) after sharing his latest assessment of Moscow’s ongoing special military operation in Ukraine during a talk show on the publicly financed Russia-1 TV station. Simply put, his take on the evolving situation contradicts the conventional interpretation of most Russian analysts and those abroad who are sympathetic to that country’s multipolar conservative-sovereigntist (MCS) worldview. He warned that the conflict is about to get a lot more intense very soon.
According to Ret. Col. Khodarenok, observers shouldn’t be under the influence of what he described as “information tranquilizers” that numb them to the reality of what he said is Kiev’s solid morale and its capability to call up to one million soldiers to the front. Their supply challenges are being addressed by the US’ “New Lend-Lease” program and support from other NATO members, which he predicts will make the situation worse for the RAF. Ret. Col. Khodarenok insisted that a conscript army like Kiev’s can indeed become a professional army if it’s properly trained, equipped, and its troops are ready to die for their cause. He also warned against saber-rattling with NATO and said that Russia is practically isolated.
Suffice to say, this interpretation of events isn’t what one who follows publicly financed Russian media or independent analysts who sympathize with that country are used to hearing. To the contrary, if they weren’t made aware of Ret. Col. Khodarenok’s nationality and were just handed a transcript of his comments edited to not reveal where he’s from (i.e. removing references to Russia), then they’d be forgiven for thinking that this was a Western analyst. Nevertheless, no one should doubt Ret. Col. Khodarenok’s patriotism since he was awarded the Merit to the Fatherland medal in 2020 for his lifelong service to Russia. All of this combined to create a major stir over his comments in the US-led West.
Some wondered why he was “allowed” to say what he did on publicly financed TV, wrongly presuming that everything on such platforms is scripted to a tee when that’s not actually the case as proven by him sharing his contrarian remarks on one of Russia’s top political talk shows. Others worried that maybe he’ll “get in trouble” for going against what’s considered to be the “politically correct” interpretation of events, but that’s also based on a similarly false premise since anyone in Russia can publicly share whatever views they want about this conflict so long as they’re done in accordance with the law (e.g. not agitating for separatism or terrorism, not spreading fake or misleading news/descriptions, et al.)
The most important aspect of Ret. Col. Khodarenok’s remarks, however, is the fact that it would be unthinkable to imagine a Western analogue being given the opportunity to express similarly contrarian views on MSM that go against their country’s presumed “politically correct” interpretation of events. For instance, there hasn’t yet been anyone of his military stature in that part of the world that appeared on any equally prestigious platform to claim that the NATO-led proxy war on Russia through Ukraine isn’t going as planned, whether on the ground and/or in terms of the blowback caused by the West’s unprecedented sanctions against Russia.
Instead, the average Western information consumer is only fed an incessant stream of so-called “victory porn”, which to be fair, also comprises a lot of content shared across the Alt-Media Community (AMC), albeit from the opposite perspective of course. What Ret. Col. Khodarenok did was show that Russia is confident enough to give a contrarian voice such as himself a prominent platform to share his assessment, trusting in this patriot to reflect reality as he truly understands it to be. This wasn’t a one-off either since MSM reported that he’d previously expressed similarly skeptical views on TV earlier this month ahead of Victory Day.
This means that the producers knew his line of thinking but respected it and his service to Russia enough to impressively invite him on again to update viewers about the latest events. Once again, something like this would be absolutely unthinkable in the US-led Western MSM. Dissident voices are purged from the public sphere if they manage to slip into the discourse even for just a few minutes. No Western analogue to Ret. Col. Khodarenok exists because they simply wouldn’t ever be invited back. In fact, their entire life might be ruined by subsequent smears that they’re a so-called “Russian agent”, with all that would entail if they’re still employed since they’d probably get “canceled” and lose their job too.
Whether because one agrees with his way of thinking or just wants to broaden their mind by exposing themselves to a contrarian view from a trusted source whose patriotism is impeccable, reflecting on Ret. Col. Khodarenok’s words would objectively do everyone a lot of good. That’s not to say that he’s correct, but also not to say that he’s wrong either. Rather, it’s just a different way to look at everything to help keep everyone’s assessments balanced by challenging their preconceived notions or wishful thinking expectations with articulate arguments that can’t be easily dismissed. His insight, after all, does help explain why the pace of the special operation has been slow but steady instead of fast and over by now.
Acknowledging what might be “politically incorrect” realities that one could have hitherto been blinded by “information tranquilizers” from realizing until now is the only way to get closer to analyzing anything as accurately as can possibly be done. This goes for both the MSM and the AMC alike. The former claimed from the early days on that the RAF are getting their rear ends handed to them while the latter said the exact same about Kiev’s forces. Objectively speaking, everything is a lot more complex since there have been gains and setbacks for both sides, yet the very fact that the RAF remain entrenched in Eastern and Southern Ukraine is impressive considering the unparalleled NATO proxy war against them.
Ret. Col. Khodarenok did a service not just to his compatriots and those abroad who sympathize with Russia’s MCS worldview, but to the entire world since he showed that every country’s media should have the same golden standard as Russia’s by bringing back experts with contrarian interpretations in order to enlighten their audience with another way of analyzing everything. The NATO-led proxy war on Russia is certainly intensifying but it’s also stalling in some ways as well, the latter of which neither the MSM nor the AMC can cogently explain due to their “politically correct” dogmatic interpretations. Taking a page from free-thinking Ret. Col. Khodarenok’s book can help one understand it all a bit better.
